African Transitions Tracker

Since the beginning of 2025, African political discourse has increasingly centred on militarism, especially among the youth and across diverse social media platforms. The reference point of conversation has been Captain Ibrahim Traoré, President of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration, the military coalition that has been leading Burkina Faso since 2022. His popularity has risen considerably, helped by a surge in popular social media accounts reporting on numerous 'massive developmental projects' and 'rapid socio-economic transformation' under his guidance, amid other reports of the country attaining self-sufficiency and rejecting all foreign aid. However, these reports have mostly been false, and it is unclear what the motive for this recent surge is or where these reports originate.

Nonetheless, be they disinformation or misinformation, they highlight the impact of social media in changing public perceptions about military governments, with many African youth hoping for the continuity of the post-2022 governance transition and the spread of militarism. These sentiments reflect the gradual decline of democracy as the favoured model of governance. In a similar vein, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formally withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as they officialised their confederation, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Significant developments were recently witnessed in Gabon, which ended its governance transition following recent military takeovers by holding presidential elections on 12 April 2025, ushering in a new civilian government. Transition leader General Brice Oligui Nguema secured an overwhelming victory with an absolute majority of the votes. The elections came at a time when some states under transition governments like Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali continue to postpone elections.

Meanwhile, Sudan's civil war rages on amid a worsening humanitarian crisis that has seen nearly 13 million people displaced and 24.6 million people (which is almost half of the country's population) without enough food. This is the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. In neighbouring South Sudan, tensions have been rising following the arrest of Vice President Riek Machar as ordered by President Salva Kiir Mayardit. The official response was that the arrest was made to stall attacks on government infrastructure and to safeguard the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).